Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 04

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2831, -0.21%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	9860, 7.71%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2860, 1.84%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1710, -1.46%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	19.70, 16.29%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.31, -1.62%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	635, -4.51%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.0981, 1.48%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	106.91, -0.56%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	8145, 0.65%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (Bond)	96.96, 0.35%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.62%, 2.06%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	62, 122.24%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	37.19, 3.51%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	130	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2792, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2759, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3005, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9001, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	9835, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	11200, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S & P 500 P/E	20.30	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.35	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	33.99, -13.11%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	75.75, -0.68%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	9
Bearish Indications	8	7
Outlook	Bearish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – BOE rate decision, US – Employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed for the coming week. The S & P is failing again and it is headed to 1800 in a case for the sell in May and go away. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2845 (up) and 2820 (down) on the S & P 500 and 9950 (up) and 9750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 27

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2837, -1.32%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	9154, -1.21%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2809, -1.06%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1746, -2.64%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	17.19, -5.91%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.34, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	665, -11.45%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.0821, -0.52%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	107.54, -0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	8092, -1.72%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (Bond)	96.62, -3.51%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.61%, -5.80%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-277, 31.08%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	35.93, -5.82%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	127	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2708, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2808, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3008, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8768, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10043, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	11247, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S & P 500 P/E	20.61	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	20.34	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	39.18, -8.16%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	76.27, -0.37%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	4
Bearish Indications	10	12
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – BOJ rate decision, US – FOMC rate decision, GDP, Eurozone – ECB rate decision, CPI, German employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the coming week. The S & P is failing again and it is headed to 1800. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2850 (up) and 2825 (down) on the S & P 500 and 9250 (up) and 9050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.