Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 09

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2972, 0.61%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10989, -1.90%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3035, 5.35%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1674, 6.87%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	41.61, -7.04%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.55, 0.31%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	617, 15.33%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1284, 2.34%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	105.28, -2.59%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	8956, -4.60%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (Bond)	105.64, -1.24%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.77%, -29.91%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-248, -289.67%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	41.94, 4.56%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	126	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3213, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3250, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3052, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11753, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11997, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	11683, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S & P 500 P/E	22.36	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	25.01	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	25.64, 10.36%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	74.00, 2.02%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	6
Bearish Indications	10	12
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 was up slightly and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – CPI, Eurozone – ECB rate decision, UK- GDP, Japan - GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P was up slightly and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the coming week. A panic bottom in the S & P near about 2600 is likely soon. Long term, the epic meltdown that just began is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. Insane valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a likely a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP and usher in a recession much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a rebounding dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2985 (up) and 2960 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11050 (up) and 10900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 02

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2954, -11.49%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	11202, -7.28%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2880, -5.24%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1587, -3.74%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	45.25, -15.23%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.54, -2.45%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	535, 7.65%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1027, 1.68%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	108.09, -3.14%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	9388, -13.94%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (Bond)	106.97, -2.83%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.16%, -21.04%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	131, -79.92%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	40.11, 134.84%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	116	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3275, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3266, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3047, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11950, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	12101, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	11684, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S & P 500 P/E	22.23	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	25.49	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	23.24, 69.60%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	72.54, 0.92%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	3	3
Bearish Indications	13	16
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty collapsed last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Employment data, Eurozone – CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P and the Nifty collapsed last week. Indicators are bearish for the coming week. Quite a week it was last week. After an oversold bounce of 200 points in the S & P the epic meltdown that began is set to continue and lead to a 5 year bear market. Long term, QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are likely making another major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. Insane valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a likely a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP and usher in a recession much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2965 (up) and 2940 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11300 (up) and 11100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.