About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 4 August 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 05

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2932, -3.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10997, -2.54%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2868, -2.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1453, 2.35%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
55.23, -1.73%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.57, -4.50%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1788, -7.69%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1108, -0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
106.61, -1.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
10374, -3.73%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (Bond)
107.93, -0.89%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.84%, -10.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
658, -11.06%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
17.61, 44.82%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
117
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2994, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2928, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2790, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11377, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
11668, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
11155, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
15.19, 25.18%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.70, 1.19%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
4
2
Bearish Indications
11
15
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – PPI, UK – GDP, Japan – GDP, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals august 05


The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have likely made another major top in global equity markets. The market has established a major top with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2940 (up) and 2920 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11100 (up) and 10900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



Sunday, 28 July 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 29

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
3026, 1.65%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11284, -1.18%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2945, 0.70%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1419, -0.51%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
56.19, 1.01%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.69, -2.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1937, -10.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1127, -0.85%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
108.68, 0.78%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10777, 1.63%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (Bond)
108.90, 0.73%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.07%, 0.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
740, -3.20%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.16, -15.85%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
123
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2992, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2916, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2785, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11582, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
11727, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
11136, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.13, -3.98%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.88, 0.03%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
9
Bearish Indications
6
8
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – FOMC rate decision, Employment data, Eurozone – CPI, German employment data, UK – BOE rate decision, Japan – BOJ rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals july 29


The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are within a percent of another major top in global equity markets. The market is establishing a major top with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3040 (up) and 3015 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11350 (up) and 11200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



Tuesday, 23 July 2019

Nasdaq - Nasdaq 100 Ratio at 2000 Levels - Massive Crash Just around the Corner?

After 19 long years the Nasdaq - Nasdaq 100 Ratio has reached the record lows it saw in 2000, when a hand full of tech stocks outperformed the broader market.  This occurred at the market peak just before the dotcom bubble burst taking the Nasdaq down almost 80% and the rest of the market over 40%. This time will be no different with a massive market crash just around the corner, with all signs such as global inverted yield curves and trade wars pointing to a severe recession ahead:

nasdaq - nasdaq 100 ratio - market crash

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.