About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

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Sunday, 7 July 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 08

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2990, 1.65%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11811, 0.19%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3011, 1.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1402, -0.96%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
57.73, -1.27%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.66, -2.88%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1446, 6.79%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1225, -1.28%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
108.47, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10485, 0.22%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (Bond)
108.61, -0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.04%, 2.40%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
726, 22.63%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
13.28, -11.94%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
127
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2926, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2886, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2779, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11828, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
11726, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
11108, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.07, -12.62%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.45, -0.73%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
8
Bearish Indications
5
6
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – PPI, CPI, FED talk, UK – GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals july 08


The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top in global equity markets. The market is establishing a major top with non-conformation from the transports. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3000 (up) and 2980 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11900 (up) and 11750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



Sunday, 30 June 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 01

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2942, -0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
11789, 0.55%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2979, -0.77%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1413, 1.17%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
58.20, 1.34%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.72, 0.48%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1340, 8.15%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1370, 0.02%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
107.91, 0.56%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10462, 1.06%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (Bond)
108.96, -0.21%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.01%, -2.53%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
592, 7.39%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
15.08, -2.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
118
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2890, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2881, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2777, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11843, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
11705, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
11099, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.95, 2.34%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
68.96, -0.90%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
11
11
Bearish Indications
1
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – Employment data, Euro Zone – German employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals july 01


The S and P 500 was relatively unchanged and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top in global equity markets. The market is establishing a major secondary top with non-conformation from the transports. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2955 (up) and 2930 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11850 (up) and 11700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.