Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 27

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2826, -1.17%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	11844, 3.83%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2853, -1.02%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1284, 0.54%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	59.00, -5.99%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.70, -1.86%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1066, 2.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1211, 0.47%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	109.31, -0.78%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	10138, -3.38%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (Bond)	107.06, -0.32%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.32%, -3.23%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	446, -24.57%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	15.85, -0.69%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	114	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2978, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2874, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2777, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11529, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11543, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	11055, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	16.47, -41.34%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	69.37, -1.31%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	10
Bearish Indications	9	6
Outlook	Bearish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – GDP, Euro Zone – German employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top in global equity markets. The market has rallied 600 points from the December lows but a 5 year bear market is in the making with a secondary top in place. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2840 (up) and 2810 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11900 (up) and 11750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Chinese Yuan Warning Major Correction Ahead?

The Chinese Yuan is well correlated to risk assets. A sudden depreciation in the Yuan has often lead to major sell offs in risk assets. With the Yuan depreciating appreciably in the last few weeks a major sell off in risk assets maybe just around the corner:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 20

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2860, -0.76%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	11407, 1.14%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2882, -1.94%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1277, -0.82%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	62.92, 2.04%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.73, -0.87%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1040, 2.67%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1160, -0.68%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	110.08, 0.40%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10492, -1.04%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	107.40, -0.32%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.39%, -1.73%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	591, -18.73%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	15.96, -0.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	119	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2900, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2869, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2777, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11512, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11467, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	11040, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	28.08, 6.61%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	70.35, 0.59%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	6
Bearish Indications	9	10
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – GDP, Euro Zone – German GDP, UK – CPI, India – Election results
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top in global equity markets. The market has rallied 600 points from the December lows but a 5 year bear market is in the making with a secondary top in place. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has far exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2870 (up) and 2850 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11500 (up) and 11300 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.