Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 15

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2907, 0.51%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	11643, -0.19%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3189, -1.78%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1294, 0.25%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	63.80, 1.14%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.94, 1.59%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	726, 2.11%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1306, 0.79%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	112.03, 0.29%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10912, 1.66%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	36.22, 0.70%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.56%, 2.38%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	1065, 6.76%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	12.01, -6.32%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	124	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2853, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2801, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2763, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11563, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11179, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10969, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	21, 14.16%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	69.16 -0.01%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	12	12
Bearish Indications	2	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Retail sales, Euro Zone – CPI, UK – Employment data, CPI, China - GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to a major secondary top in global equity markets. The market got its oversold bounce of about 550 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2920 (up) and 2890 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11750 (up) and 11550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 08

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2893, 2.06%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	11666, 0.36%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3247, 5.04%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1296, 0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	63.27, 5.20%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.89, -2.79%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	711, 3.19%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1229, 0.09%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	111.71, 0.64%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10734, 3.14%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.97, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.50%, 2.92%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	997, 14.00%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	12.82, -6.49%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	129	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2831, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2779, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2759, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11468, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11088, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10947, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	18.39, 7.03%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	69.23 -0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	11	10
Bearish Indications	2	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – CPI, PPI, Euro Zone – ECB rate decision, UK - GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to a major secondary top in global equity markets. The market got its oversold bounce of about 550 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2905 (up) and 2880 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11750 (up) and 11600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.