Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 12

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2781, 2.13%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10585, 0.31%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	2599, -2.90%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1209, -2.00%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	60.19, -4.67%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.68, -4.36%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1147, -21.28%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1338, -0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	113.78, 0.52%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10517, 1.46%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.14, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	3.19%, -0.78%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-451, 36.10%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	17.36, -11.02%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	120	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2741, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2829, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2763, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10360, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10880, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10760, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.76, -2.55%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	72.62, -0.33%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	7
Bearish Indications	6	7
Outlook	Bullish	Neutral
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets are indicating a major trend change. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – Employment data, Japan – GDP, US – CPI, UK – Employment data, CPI, Euro Zone – German GDP, CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. The oversold bounce in global markets has likely stalled out near the declining 200 DMA’s and the trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A major top has been established in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. This is going to be followed by a massive selloff and most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2790 (up) and 2770 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10700 (up) and 10500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 05

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2723, 2.42%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10553, 5.21%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2677, 2.99%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1233, -0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	63.14, -6.58%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.81, 2.41%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1470, -3.23%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1388, -0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	113.19, 1.23%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10366, 4.02%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.14, 0.63%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	3.21%, 4.45%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	-706, 1.22%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	19.51, -19.25%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	116	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2748, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2841, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2765, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10326, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10941, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10762, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	18.23, -5.21%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	72.86, -0.31%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	9
Bearish Indications	6	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rebounded last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are indicating a major trend change. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – RBA rate decision, New Zealand – RBNZ rate decision, Employment data, US – Midterm elections, FOMC rate decision, PPI, UK – GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rebounded last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. The oversold bounce in global markets will likely stall out near the declining 200 DMA’s and the trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A major top has been established in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. This is going to be followed by a massive selloff and most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2735 (up) and 2710 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10650 (up) and 10450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.