Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 20

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2579, -0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	10284, -0.37%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3383, -1.45%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1297, 1.75%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	56.71, -0.05%	Neutral	Neutral
Copper	3.07, -0.29%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1361, -8.10%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1792, 1.09%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	112.13, -1.23%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	9483, -0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	36.79, 0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.35%, -1.92%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	308, -35.79%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	11.43, 1.24%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	137	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2578, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2547, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2441, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10307, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10133, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	9600, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	13.71, 1.76%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	64.90, -0.74%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	6
Bearish Indications	5	6
Outlook	Bullish	Neutral
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed. The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – RBA minutes, Euro zone – ECB minutes, German GDP, German IFO business climate index, Draghi speech, German PMI, UK – GDP, Employment data, U.S – Yellen speech, FOMC minutes, Durable goods, Oil inventories, Existing home sales, Canada – Retail sales
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2590 (up) and 2570 (down) on the S & P and 10350 (up) and 10200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Some Developing Bearish Divergences

Here are some divergences developing that are worth watching:

Crude Oil is close to its recent highs but junk bonds have broken down from recent highs:

Crude Oil WTI Futures Technical Analysis - Investing.com

SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond Technical Analysis - Investing.com

Volatility and the Skew have been steadily pushing upwards:

Volatility S&P 500 Technical Analysis - Investing.com

CBOE SKEW Technical Analysis - Investing.com

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 13

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2582, -0.21%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	10322, -1.25%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3433, 1.81%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1274, 0.39%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	56.74, 1.98%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.08, -1.33%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1481, -1.00%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1664, 0.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	113.53, -0.47%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	9501, -2.60%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	36.68, -0.86%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.40%, 2.43%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	480, -20.92%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	11.29, 23.52%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	131	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2574, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2536, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2434, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10302, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10100, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	9549, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	13.48, 13.14%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	65.38, 1.12%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	6
Bearish Indications	7	9
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish. The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – Employment data, Japan – GDP, Euro zone – German GDP, CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, Draghi speech,UK – CPI, Carney speech, Retail sales, Employment data, U.S – Yellen speech, PPI, Oil inventories, CPI, Retail sales, Canada – CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2595 (up) and 2570(down) on the S & P and 10400 (up) and 10200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.