Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 23

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2575, 0.86%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10147, -0.21%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3379, -0.35%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1281, -1.85%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	51.84, 0.76%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.17, 1.02%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1582, 8.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1785, -0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	113.47, 1.44%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	9972, 0.36%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	37.32, 0.38%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.38%, 4.43%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	892, -3.84%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	9.97, 3.75%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	149	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2540, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2497, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2411, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9992, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	9957, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	9405, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.40, 9.64%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	65.11, 0.63%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	8
Bearish Indications	5	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty fell slightly last week. Indicators are bullish. The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	New Zealand – Employment data, Australia - CPI, UK – GDP, Euro zone – German PMI, German IFO Index, ECB rate decision, Russia – Rate decision, U.S – Durable goods, New and pending home sales, Oil inventories, GDP, Canada – Rate decision, Poloz speech
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty fell slightly last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2585 (up) and 2565(down) on the S & P and 10250 (up) and 10050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 16

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2553, 0.15%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	10168, 1.88%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3391, 1.24%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1305, 2.33%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	51.45, 4.38%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.13, 3.45%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1458, 5.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1821, 0.77%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	111.87, -0.67%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	9936, 0.50%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	37.18, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.27%, -3.80%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	928, 1.81%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	9.61, -0.41%	Neutral	Neutral
Skew	138	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2526, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2488, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2403, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9977, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	9945, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	9362, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	11.26, 1.30%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	64.66, -1.19%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	12	13
Bearish Indications	1	2
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish. The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	China – GDP, Industrial production, New Zealand – CPI, Australia - Employment data, UK – CPI, Employment data, Retail sales, Euro zone – CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment data, U.S –Oil inventories, Existing home sales, Canada – CPI, Retail sales
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2565 (up) and 2545(down) on the S & P and 10250 (up) and 10100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.