Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 2

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2519, 0.68%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	9789, -1.76%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3349, -0.11%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1285, -0.98%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	51.67, 1.54%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.95, 0.36%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1391, -5.37%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1813, -1.16%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	112.54, 0.49%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	9914, 2.16%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	37.32, 0.32%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.33%, 2.83%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	795, 17.96%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	9.51, -0.70%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	138	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2493, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2473, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2389, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9978, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	9946, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	9277, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.48, -2.54%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	65.30, 0.67%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	6
Bearish Indications	4	8
Outlook	Bullish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty fell again last week. Indicators are mixed. The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – Tankan manufacturers Index, Australia – Rate decision, Retail sales, UK – PMI’s, Euro – German PMI, ECB minutes, U.S – ISM data, Crude oil inventory data, Employment data, Canada – Employment data, PMI, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty continued to underperform last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2530 (up) and 2510 (down) on the S & P and 9900 (up) and 9700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.