|
Indicator
|
Weekly Level /
Change
|
Implication for
S & P 500
|
Implication for
Nifty*
|
|
S & P 500
|
2519, 0.68%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Nifty
|
9789, -1.76%
|
Neutral **
|
Bearish
|
|
China Shanghai
Index
|
3349, -0.11%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Gold
|
1285, -0.98%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
WTIC Crude
|
51.67, 1.54%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Copper
|
2.95, 0.36%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Baltic Dry Index
|
1391, -5.37%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Euro
|
1.1813, -1.16%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Dollar/Yen
|
112.54, 0.49%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Dow Transports
|
9914, 2.16%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
High Yield (ETF)
|
37.32, 0.32%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
US 10 year Bond
Yield
|
2.33%, 2.83%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Nyse Summation
Index
|
795, 17.96%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
US Vix
|
9.51, -0.70%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Skew
|
138
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
20 DMA, S and P
500
|
2493, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
50 DMA, S and P
500
|
2473, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
200 DMA, S and P
500
|
2389, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
20 DMA, Nifty
|
9978, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
50 DMA, Nifty
|
9946, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
200 DMA, Nifty
|
9277, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
India Vix
|
12.48, -2.54%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
65.30, 0.67%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
Overall
|
S & P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
8
|
6
|
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
4
|
8
|
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bearish
|
|
|
Observation
|
The S and P 500 made
new highs and the Nifty fell again last week. Indicators are mixed.
The market is
topping. Time to tighten those stops.
|
||
|
On the Horizon
|
Japan – Tankan
manufacturers Index, Australia – Rate decision, Retail sales, UK – PMI’s,
Euro – German PMI, ECB minutes, U.S – ISM data, Crude oil inventory data, Employment
data, Canada – Employment data, PMI,
India – RBI rate
decision
|
||
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
|
Raw Data
|
Courtesy Google
finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less
than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty continued to
underperform last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Quantitative
tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back
in complacency mode. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations
above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The
critical levels to watch are 2530 (up) and 2510 (down) on the S & P and 9900
(up) and 9700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels
could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
