About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 30 July 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 31


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2472, -0.02%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10015, 1.00%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3253, 0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1275, 1.63%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
49.71, 8.61%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.88, 5.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
942, -2.28%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1752, 0.78%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
110.68, -0.40%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9227, -2.58%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
37.41, 0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.29%, 2.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
751, 3.13%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
10.29, 9.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
140
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2452, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2435, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2322, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9839, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9682, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8937, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.14, 0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Rupee
64.11, -0.55%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
8

9

Bearish Indications
4
4

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
China – PMI, UK - PMI, Rate decision, Australia – Rate decision, Retail sales, New Zealand – Employment data, Euro Zone – CPI, PMI, German PMI, German employment data, U.S –Oil inventories, pending home sales, ISM, employment data, Canada – employment data, PMI, India – RBI rate decision  






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




stock market signals july 31

The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Transports and the Yen are flashing warning signs. Momentum is waning. The critical levels to watch are 2485 (up) and 2460 (down) on the S & P and 10100 (up) and 9900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Thursday, 27 July 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets and the Economy:

Wednesday, 26 July 2017

Plan to buy your dream car / Increasing consumerism



You have landed that dream job.  Finally you have some significant savings and you are in the market for a brand new car. You think your budget would be in the range of five to six lakhs. You are now contemplating taking a loan. You survey the landscape and find auto loan rates ranging anywhere from twelve to fifteen percent. You are disheartened a bit as the loan rates appear a bit expensive. You would have to shell out quite a bit in interest expense over the life time of the loan. 

This however should come as no surprise to you as auto loan rates have been exhibiting a rising trend over the last five to ten years. All is not lost though; If you can postpone your purchase for a little while and develop a systematic investment strategy in top rated mutual funds you may be able to save enough for your car and also save significant interest expense that a car loan would entail.

For example if you are about thirty years old and you have a medium risk appetite implying you invest about 60% in equity and 40% in debt mutual funds you could achieve your targeted goal of Rs five lakhs in about 5 years if you invest as little as Rs 5,000 a month. Your monthly investment would be diversified into top rated mutual funds from highly rated fund houses like Birla Sun Life, SBI, ICICI Prudential and Franklin Templeton. If you double your investment amount to Rs 10,000 a month then you accomplish your investment goal a lot faster.

If you have a slightly higher risk appetite and are willing to invest about 80% in equity and 20% in debt you can potentially accomplish your investment target a lot faster than the earlier approach with proven investments in top rated mutual funds investing as little as Rs 5,000 a month. Double that investment and your dream car is just a few years away. So why wait? Custom make your own unique investment strategy to make that dream car a reality.

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  • The Intelligent Investor
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  • Remniscience of a stock operator

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.