About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 23 July 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 24


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2473, 0.54%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9915, 0.28%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3238, 0.48%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1255, 2.23%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
45.77, -1.65%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.72, 1.17%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
964, 8.56%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1661, 1.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.13, -1.23%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9471, -2.79%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
37.32, 0.35%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.23%, -3.75%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
728, 22.48%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
9.36, -1.58%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
135
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2441, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2427, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2314, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9720, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9628, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8905, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.09, -0.78%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.46, 0.31%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
10

11

Bearish Indications
3
3

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is in unchartered territory. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
Russia – Rate decision, UK - GDP, Australia – CPI, Euro Zone – PMI, German IFO business index, Rate decision, U.S –Oil inventories, Existing and new home sales, Consumer confidence, Durable goods, FOMC rate decision, GDP, Canada – GDP  






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




stock market signals july 24

The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Transports and the Yen are flashing warning signs. Market internals are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2485 (up) and 2460 (down) on the S & P and 10000 (up) and 9850 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Thursday, 20 July 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets and the Economy:

What to do with your Bonus?

The much anticipated day and time has arrived. You’ve worked very hard for it and finally you’ve got it. It’s your bonus and it’s reached your bank account. The big question is however what are you going to do with it? Spend it, keep it idle in the bank or invest it? Some very attractive options lie ahead for you and a discipline approach can yield very good returns. These include:

1) Paying of your debt - Debt either via credit cards or personal loans comes with a very high cost attached. Interest often accumulates and multiplies and can become quite burdensome over time. It would be quite prudent to retire such debt with a part of the bonus.

2) Generating Tax Savings – You can invest part of your bonus in avenues such as the Public provident fund, Life insurance premiums, Equity linked savings schemes (ELSS) etc that give you a tax benefit of Rs. 1.5 lakhs under 80C. In addition you are eligible to invest a further Rs. 50,000 under the National Pension Scheme for an additional tax benefit under 80CCD (1b).

3) Investing for your family – You can invest for your children long term under the Sukanya Samridhee scheme or for senior citizens under the senior citizens savings scheme. While these investments come under the purview of 80c they tend to deliver returns as high as 8.6% which tends to be higher than traditional schemes like the Public provident fund. Investing in a larger house also has some appeal.

4) Saving for Emergencies - Ideally you should have six months of your salary in the bank for any emergencies you may encounter such as medical emergencies or vehicle repairs. If you have not done this you could utilize your bonus towards your emergency corpus.

4)  Retirement Planning – A proper retirement plan is absolutely mandatory and you can accomplish this via Systematic Investment Plans (SIP's). SIP’s have become increasingly attractive vehicles to build wealth consistently over time. You can break up your bonus into smaller increments and invest regularly over the course of the year without worrying about the ups and downs in the market. Consider starting an SIP on an appropriate mutual fund if you haven’t already done so.

If you have exhausted all the above options there are still some more attractive options for you. You can tailor make an investment strategy to fit your life style and accomplish your life goals. The plan can be designed according to your risk appetite and tolerance and can help you build significant wealth over time. So why wait any longer? Look at your investment options and start creating your unique investment plan. This will help you spend your bonus wisely.

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.