About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Monday, 15 May 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Sunday, 14 May 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May15

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2391, -0.35%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	9401, 1.24%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3084, -0.63%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1228, 0.07%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	47.84, 3.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.52, -0.18%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1014, 2.01%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.093, -0.65%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	113.32, 0.59%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	9001, -2.05%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	37.09, 0.43%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.34%, -0.72%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	545, -10.60%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	10.40, -1.61%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	130	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2380, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2369, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2252, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9271, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	9158, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	8675, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	10.63, -11.35%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	64.16, -0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	10
Bearish Indications	4	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators mildly bullish. The market is repeatedly failing at resistance. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – GDP, Australia – Employment data, Euro Zone – Italy GDP, German ZEW survey, Euro Zone GDP, Draghi speech, UK – CPI, Canada - CPI

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Market internals, the transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2400 (up) and 2380 (down) on the S & P and 9450 (up) and 9350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Friday, 12 May 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.