Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at volatility in the FOREX market ahead of the ECB and payroll data out of the US:

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at key FOREX pairs ahead of some crucial central bank meetings:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 06

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2383, 0.67%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	8898, -0.47%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3218, -1.08%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1227, -2.53%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	53.33, -1.22%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.70, 0.02%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	939, 7.31%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.062, 0. 40%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	114.05, 1.67%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	9492, 0.72%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	37.09, 0.31%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.49%, 7.55%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	769, -5.35%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	10.96, -4.45%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2344, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2300, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2187, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8837, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	8531, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	8447, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	13.35, -0.35%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Rupee	66.73, 0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	8
Bearish Indications	5	4
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish. The market is in over bought zone. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	China – New loan data, CPI, Japan – GDP, Australia – Rate decision, U.S - Employment data,  Canada –Employment data,  Euro Zone – ECB rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Possible FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Divergences are piling up suggesting that risk reward is shifting towards the downside. The critical levels to watch are 2390 (up) and 2370 (down) on the S & P and 9000 (up) and 8800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.