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Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Saturday, 4 March 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 06

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2383, 0.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8898, -0.47%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3218, -1.08%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1227, -2.53%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
53.33, -1.22%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.70, 0.02%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
939, 7.31%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.062, 0. 40%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
114.05, 1.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
9492, 0.72%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
37.09, 0.31%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.49%, 7.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
769, -5.35%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
10.96, -4.45%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2344, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2300, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2187, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8837, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8531, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8447, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.35, -0.35%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Rupee
66.73, 0.13%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
8

8
Bearish Indications
5
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is in over bought zone. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China – New loan data, CPI, Japan – GDP, Australia – Rate decision, U.S - Employment data,  Canada –Employment data,
 Euro Zone – ECB rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals march 06


The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Possible FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Divergences are piling up suggesting that risk reward is shifting towards the downside. The critical levels to watch are 2390 (up) and 2370 (down) on the S & P and 9000 (up) and 8800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.