About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 25 December 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 26

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2264, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
7986, -1.89%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3110, -0.41%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1134, -0.33%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
53.02, 0.13%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.48, -3.33%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
961, 1.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.045, 0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
117.33, -0.53%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9191, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
36.66, 1.02%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.54%, -2.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
467, 15.98%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
11.44, -6.23%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2239, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2186, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2132, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8137, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8304, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8240, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
15.13, -0.82%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.84, -0.02%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9

5
Bearish Indications
2
6
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
The Trump bounce is largely over. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – CPI, U.S – Consumer confidence, Trade balance
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. The FED rate hike is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Risky segments of the market like emerging markets are breaking down on broad dollar strength. The critical levels to watch are 2270 (up) and 2250 (down) on the S & P and 8100 (up) and 7900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Wednesday, 21 December 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the trends in play that may continue till year end:

Tuesday, 20 December 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the impact of recent monetary policy action on the Euro and the Yen:

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My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.