About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 2 October 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 3

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2168, 0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8611, -2.50%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3005, -0.96%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1317, -1.83%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
48.24, 8.45%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.21, 0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
875, -7.01%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.124, 0.14%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
101.38, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8079, 1.79%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.72, 0.58%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.61%, -0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
559, -2.11%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
13.29, 8.14%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2157, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2168, At
Neutral
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2064, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8783, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8690, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
7996, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
17.18, 29.68%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.56, -0.21%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
5

4
Bearish Indications
5
8
Outlook
Neutral
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are tilting bearish.
Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia - Rate decision, India – RBI rate decision, Canada - Employment data, U.S – ISM data, Employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stocktwits charts


The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty sold off hard last week. Signals are switching to the bearish side for the upcoming week. Market momentum and breadth have been showing divergences for months now and sentiment indicators are still highly complacent and a big breakdown will likely start soon. It is interesting to see all risky assets suddenly moving together much like in 2008. This is setting us up for some serious downside ahead unless recent resistance gets taken out soon. The critical levels to watch are 2180 (up) and 2160 (down) on the S & P and 8700 (up) and 8550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Thursday, 29 September 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at waning risk appetite stemming from a slide in bank stocks across the globe:

Wednesday, 28 September 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the up move in Oil following a possible OPEC production cut :

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My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.