Fed Unlikely to Raise Rates, Implications for Gold

An interesting post from our partners at the The WallStreet Window:

Is the fed going to raise rates in June? Think again. A no raise has bullish implications for gold.

The Fed and Gold from Rajveer Rawlin

For more on this visit our partner Michael Swanson on his website www.wallstreetwindow.com.

Chart of the Day - Long Term Moving Average Cross Over

The chart of the day is from TheWaveTrading via SafeHaven and shows the 10 month moving average (MMA) crossing below the 20 MMA for the S and P 500 after 8 years. Long term moving average crosses are usually associated with trend changes as was the case with the S and P 500 in 2000 and 2008:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 16

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2047, -0.51%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	7815, 1.05%	Neutral**	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2827, -2.96%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1274,-1.19%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	47.03, 5.54%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.08, -3.44%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	600, -4.91%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.138, -0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	108.61, 1.43%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	7507, -2.99%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	34.80, 0.29%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.71%, -4.16%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	922, -13.35%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	15.04, 2.17%	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2076, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2055, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2012, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	7852, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	7664, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	7816, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.00, 0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Rupee	66.90, 0.44%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	4	5
Bearish Indications	10	9
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The Sand P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish. Markets are breaking down from resistance. Time to tighten those stops as downside has resumed.
On the Horizon	Japan – GDP, Australia – Employment data, England – CPI, U.S – CPI, Canada - CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The Sand P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency and the break down in transports is flashing warning signs. The markets are breaking down from resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 as the recent rally appears to have concluded. A big move is imminent.  The critical levels to watch are 2060 (up) and 2040 (down) on the S & P and 7850 (up) and 7750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.