Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 7

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2000, 2.67%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	7485, 6.48%	Neutral**	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2874, 3.86%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1260, 3.05%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	36.33, 10.63%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.26, 6.76%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	349, 6.73%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.096, 0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	113.81, -0.14%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	7652, 3.33%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	33.81, 2.82%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.88%, 6.87%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	324, 332.74%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	16.86, -14.89%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	1919, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	1938, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2023, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	7174, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	7421, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	7948, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.88, -18.21%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	66.96, -2.67%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	12	13
Bearish Indications	2	2
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied hard last week. Indicators are bullish. Markets are back at resistance. Looking for a retest of the recent lows soon.
On the Horizon	China – Loan data, PPI, CPI, Euro zone – GDP, ECB rate decision, New Zealand – Rate decision, Canada – Rate decision, Employment data,
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market and Nifty rallied strongly last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016, looking for a retest of the recent lows soon.  The critical levels to watch are 2020 (up) and 1980 (down) on the S & P and 7600 (up) and 7400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Kondratieff Winter Signals a Collapse Ahead?

For those who follow market and economic cycles other than the traditional 8 year cycle and the 40 year super cycle which all point to some serious downside in 2016 the Kondratieff cycle suggests we have entered a major winter wave which has serious downside implications between 2000 and 2020. We are in the last leg of the down wave that usually has the most downside. The last major winter wave lasted between 1929 and 1949 and covered the Great Depression of the 1930's. Here is a summary from kondratieffwavecycle.com.

India Union Budget 2016-17

How does this budget stack up in comparison to earlier budgets? Here are some key line item comparisons via a terrific infographic from rediff.com: