About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Showing posts with label market cycles. Show all posts

Friday, 4 March 2016

Kondratieff Winter Signals a Collapse Ahead?

For those who follow market and economic cycles other than the traditional 8 year cycle and the 40 year super cycle which all point to some serious downside in 2016 the Kondratieff cycle suggests we have entered a major winter wave which has serious downside implications between 2000 and 2020. We are in the last leg of the down wave that usually has the most downside. The last major winter wave lasted between 1929 and 1949 and covered the Great Depression of the 1930's. Here is a summary from kondratieffwavecycle.com.

Tuesday, 18 August 2015

Long and Short Stock Market Cycles Indicating a Major Market Top?

Aside from over valuation and technical break downs a major stock market top appears overdue in 2016 from the convergence of long term market cycles. Have a look at the long term 21 year stock market cycle (#stkmktcyl) that is scheduled to conclude in 2016 highlighted in silverdoctors.com:

In addition shorter 7 year market cycles are also scheduled to resolve in 2016. The chart below from silverdoctors.com shows a broadening top #megaphone pattern in the S and P 500 with the S and P at the top of the pattern.With short and long market cycles both resolving in 2016, a topping process globally in risk assets is likely in the next few months with the S and P eventually migrating to the lower line of the pattern below the 650 mark:

Long and short stock market cycles indicating a major market top from Rajveer Rawlin

Market cycles indicating major top in? http://t.co/NqNf6NXrTf pic.twitter.com/Ca9EVuOtRE
— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 6, 2015

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.