A fund that aims to mirror Warren Buffett’s investment style has beaten the
FTSE since Black Monday, but the vast majority of active funds have lagged
behind"
Wall Street is forever on the lookout for ever more exotic indicators of impending doom for the stock market, and the latest measure to catch eyeballs is the CBOE Skew index .SKEWX which recently flashed panic signals like never before."
During the August 2015 stock market crash, markets around the world dropped significantly. What was the cause? The media blames China, but were they?"
Stock market crashes in 1987, under a selling avalanche of over half a billion shares, as traders recalled the Great Crash of 1929."
You may not want the stock market to fall, but it's only a matter of time."
The world is grievously underestimating the danger of deflation."
Here are some more interesting market news and views.
Indicator
|
Weekly Level / Change /
Significance
|
Implication for
S & P 500
|
Implication for Nifty*
|
S & P 500
|
2033, 0.90%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
8238, 0.59%
|
Neutral**
|
Bullish
|
China Shanghai Index
|
3391, 6.54%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1177, 1.89%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC Crude
|
47.73, -3.56%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.40, -0.74%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic Dry Index
|
754, -6.80%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.1358, 0.00%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
119.46, -0.64%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow Transports
|
8079, -2.11%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US 10 year Bond Yield
|
2.02%, -3.62%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse Summation Index
|
187, 350.17%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
15.05, -11.89%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
20 DMA, S and P 500
|
1967, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50 DMA, S and P 500
|
1985, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200 DMA, S and P 500
|
2060, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
20 DMA, Nifty
|
8025, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50 DMA, Nifty
|
8065, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200 DMA, Nifty
|
8376, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
India Vix
|
16.27, -14.00%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.71,-0.00%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
|
|
|
Overall
|
S & P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish Indications
|
8
|
8
|
|
Bearish Indications
|
6
|
6
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty
were up last week. Indicators are bullish. The Vix is back in complacency
mode and transports are flashing warning signs. We are entering a weak period
for risk assets globally and declines are likely in both indices in the
upcoming months following this bounce.
|
|
|
On the Horizon
|
China GDP data, ECB and Canada rate
decisions, Canada CPI.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
|
|
The markets rallied last week. Signals are marginally bullish for the upcoming week and this bounce is on the verge of completion. The S and P 500 and several global indices have completed massive bear flags which should resolve to the downside. The markets are expected to encounter resistance at higher levels on any bounces, with the 2035-2045 zone on the S and P 500 acting as major resistance.
There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last weeks
report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the
S and P 500 and
Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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Market outlook for 28/10/2016
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*Nifty closed flat at 8615.25* while Future closed at 8655.25, premium of
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.