Some Compelling Reasons Why the Next Move Down in Global Financial Markets is Just Around the Corner

There are some compelling reasons to believe that the next move down in risk assets across the globe is about to begin:

First and foremost even after the recent bounce the #Euro a good proxy for global risk appetite has completely broken down despite the perceived resolution to the crisis in Greece. The strong dollar could eventually cause the liquidation of carry trades.
Next the USD/YEN often a proxy for carry trades has refused to break significantly above the major resistance of 125 despite the recent up move in the market and has recently broken below the 113 mark.

#Oil and base metals like copper which are barometers of global economic strength have resumed major break downs:


The S and P 500's last few highs have been marked by bearish divergences with non conformations in the transportation index which has not hit new highs in over 11 months and a major break down is under way out of a massive rising wedge:


Finally the #Vix is yet to take out it's 52 week lows and is heading  upwards taking out it's recent highs above the 25 level and reaching as high as 53. Currently it has closed near the 20 mark that still suggests complacency:

Yes oversold bounces in the S and P 500 and other indices are possible but the above developments taken together with market cycles peaking make for a possibility of a global market melt down in the not too distant future.

Down move upcoming in risk assets ? http://t.co/bD5OqMEw8S pic.twitter.com/Ey032kyjAB

— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 6, 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Market for the Week beginning July 13

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change / Significance	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2077,- 0.01%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	8361, -1.47%	Neutral**	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3878, -0.89%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1163, -0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	52.82, -6.51%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.54, -3.60%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	874, 10.08%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1160, 0.68%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	122.76, -0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	8202, 0.97%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.42%, 1.00%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	-403, -22.70%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	16.83, 0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2088, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2100, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2056, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8329, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	8276, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	8381, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.07, 4.69%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	63.36, -0.08%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	4	5
Bearish Indications	7	7
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The Sand P 500 was unchanged last week while the Nifty underperformed. Indicators are bearish but oversold so a sell off is likely after this oversold rally concludes.
On the Horizon	Greece discussions, China loan data, UK, US and Canada consumer prices, Euro ZEW economic sentiment survey, US retail sales, China GDP, Canada and ECB rate decisions, New Zealand consumer prices, Janet Yellen testimony, US consumer confidence
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

Signals are bearish for the upcoming week but indicators are oversold, so the oversold bounce that started last week may continue before the bears assert themselves . You can check out last weeks report for a comparison.

Why I am Bearish on the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index?