Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2425, 0.07%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
|
9666, 1.52%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3218, 0.80%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1210, -2.62%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
44.23, -3.93%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.65, -2.36%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
829, -9.89%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.1401, -0.20%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
113.91, 1.28%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow
Transports
|
9695, 1.37%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.83, -0.54%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.39%, 3.95%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
560, -4.17%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
11.19, 0.09%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Skew
|
132
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2432, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2414, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2300, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
9603, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
9524, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
8850, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
10.87, -7.37%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.59, -0.02%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
5
|
8
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
8
|
6
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are mixed.
The
market is breaking down from resistance. Time to tighten those stops.
|
|
|
On
the Horizon
|
China
– CPI, UK - Employment data, U.S – Trade balance, Oil inventories, Retail
sales, Yellen speech, PPI, CPI, Canada – Rate decision, Poloz speech
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
|
|
![stock market signals july 10 stock market signals july 10](https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yYJrw617jlk/WJbYq55xZaI/AAAAAAAAArc/4oXJt9xsGs0t7oZEgsgtPMMIlxxANhKlQCPcBGAYYCw/s400/crash%2B2017.png)
The S and
P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are mixed for the
upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment
indicators are back in complacency mode. Commodities are breaking down yet
again. Market internals are flashing major warning signs of a large decline
ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2435 (up) and 2415 (down) on the S
& P and 9700 (up) and 9600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the
above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
Here
is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an
aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and
Commodity markets and the Economy:
Here
is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an
aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and
Commodity markets and the Economy:
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.