About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Showing posts with label bovespa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bovespa. Show all posts

Thursday, 24 September 2015

Bear Flag Break Downs in Several Key Global Stock Market Indices With Crash Implications

Several key global indices are in the middle of massive bear flag breakdowns:
a) First the S and P 500 index shows a massive bear flag breaking down, with the flag forming below the cloud. Highly bearish implying a target below 1800:

b) Secondly the German Dax with a similar bear flag break down below the cloud targeting levels below 8700:

c) Thirdly the UK FTSE index is currently breaking down from a bear flag below the cloud targeting levels below 5500:

d) Fourth the Brazilian Bovespa is in the middle of a massive break down from a bear flag pattern yet again below the cloud with targets below 42,000:

e) Lastly the Indian #stock market Nifty Index has completed a bear flag and a break down underway has targets below 7200:

Not a coincidence then that bear flag break downs are taking place across the board across key international stock markets with significant downside implications. With these break downs forming below the cloud a crash like scenario could result in the upcoming days.
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Thursday, 13 August 2015

Interesting Perspective on the Chinese Yuan Devaluation

While the Chinese Yuan devaluation has taken the global markets by storm this week, it certainly is not the first of its kind and pales in comparison to the 50% devaluation in the Yuan in 1994. A very interesting chart from dailyfx below provides insight into the fluctuations in the Yuan.
DEVALUING THE YUAN ISN'T UNCHARTED TERRITORY
It also appears that the #Yuan is yet to catch up with the deteriorating macro economic back drop in China as per the next chart from dailyfx and the current devaluation may not help matters in the long term.
nyse What Does Yuan's Devaluation Mean for Chinese and Global Markets?

Regardless the contagion effect on the  #BRIC and other emerging economies can't be ignored as the threat of cheap Chinese exports flooding the market place is alive and well in the near term. The mere prospect of this has sent some BRIC currencies and stock markets sharply lower and this is likely to continue in the short term:
CNX NIFTY (^NSEI)
iShares, Inc. - iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.