About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Thursday 14 January 2021

Forecasting the S & P 500 - A Time Series Approach

Using time-series data from 2015-2020, a forecast is made for the first 10 weeks of 2021. An Arima 2,1,2 model is fit using Gretl. Results are below:

Forecasts:

2021-01-03 3753.66

2021-01-10 3725.91

2021-01-17 3726.87

2021-01-24 3760.76

2021-01-31 3783.72

2021-02-07 3774.53

2021-02-14 3761.59

2021-02-21 3774.23

2021-02-28 3800.34

2021-03-07 3810.33

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.