Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 25

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2793, 0.61%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10792, 0.63%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2804, 4.54%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1333, 0.81%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	57.26, 2.29%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.95, 5.47%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	634, -0.78%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1321, 0.26%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	110.66, 0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10593, 0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	35.59, 0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.66%, -0.41%	Neutral	Neutral
Nyse Summation Index	1253, 15.46%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	13.51, -9.39%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	121	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2725, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2625, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2748, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10808, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10823, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10861, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	15.45, -6.14%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	71.03 -0.41%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	8
Bearish Indications	1	4
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Powell testimony, GDP, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century. The market got its oversold bounce of about 450 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has finally exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2800 (up) and 2780 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10850 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Things to Worry as a Bear

There's loads of things to worry about if you are a bear such as valuations, China, US yield curve flattening, economic woes in Europe, the recent collapse in freight rates etc. Here is an apt summary of these views from the pro's:

Things to Worry About as a Bear

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 18

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2776, 2.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10724, -2.00%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2682, 2.45%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1322, 0.27%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	55.98, 6.18%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.80, -0.43%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	639, 6.32%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1292, -0.52%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	110.40, 0.59%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10568, 3.84%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.50, 0.77%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.67%, 1.29%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	1085, 20.68%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	14.91, -5.15%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	130	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2698, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2616, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2745, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10847, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10817, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10860, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	16.46, 5.73%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	71.33 0.26%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	12	8
Bearish Indications	2	7
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – Employment data, Euro Zone – German GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty was down last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century. The market got its oversold bounce of about 400 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has finally caught up to the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2790 (up) and 2760 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10800 (up) and 10650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.