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Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 26 February 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 27

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2367, 0.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8940, 1.34%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3253, 1.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1258, 1.55%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
53.99, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.70, -0.41%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
875, 18.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.058, -0.34%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
112.14, -0.63%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9422, -0.77%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
37.15, 0.51%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.31%, -4.45%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
812, 4.32%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
11.47, -0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2320, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2288, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2179, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8776, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8451, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8421, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.40, -0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Rupee
66.64, -0.65%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10

11
Bearish Indications
2
2
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is in melt up mode. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – GDP, China – PMI, Japan –CPI, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, Euro zone CPI, GDP, Switzerland – GDP, U.K – GDP, Canada – GDP, U.S – Durable goods, Consumer confidence, Trade balance, Personal consumption data, GDP, ISM data, Yellen speech, Canada – Rate decision, GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals february 27

The S and P 500 and the Nifty moved up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Possible FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. The Vix, transports and the flight to quality bid emerging in treasuries, the dollar and yen are suggesting that risk reward is shifting towards the downside. The critical levels to watch are 2380 (up) and 2360 (down) on the S & P and 9000 (up) and 8850 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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