India Union Budget 2016-17

How does this budget stack up in comparison to earlier budgets? Here are some key line item comparisons via a terrific infographic from rediff.com:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 29

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	1948, 1.58%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	7030, -2.51%	Neutral**	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2767, -3.25%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1223, -0.31%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	32.84, 10.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.11, 1.66%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	327, 3.81%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.102, -0.99%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	113.97, 1.26%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	7405, 1.63%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	33.07, 2.13%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.76%, 0.8%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	-139, 70.20%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	19.81, -3.51%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	1905, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	1944, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2027, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	7211, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	7472, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	7973, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	21.86, 4.54%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	68.79, 0.11%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	8
Bearish Indications	4	8
Outlook	Bullish	Neutral
Observation	The Sand P 500 rallied while the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed. Markets are back at resistance. Looking for a retest of the recent lows soon.
On the Horizon	China - PMI, Australia – Rate decision, GDP, Euro zone – CPI, German employment data, Switzerland – GDP, Canada – GDP, U.S – ISM data, Employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market rallied last week while the Nifty tested its recent lows and fell last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016, looking for a retest of the recent lows soon. The Nifty will likely make new lows this week post the budget announcement. The critical levels to watch are 1960 (up) and 1930 (down) on the S & P and 7100 (up) and 7000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Good and Great Analysts

There are many market analysts out there today offering all sorts of views and analysis. Only a handful of them are consistently good. Only a fraction of these are great. So what differentiates a good analyst from a great one? Have a look at this terrific infographic put together by Quandl.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 22

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	1918, 2.84%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	7211, 3.29%	Neutral**	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2860, 3.49%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1227, -0.96%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	31.96, 10.13%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.08, 2.29%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	315, 8.25%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.111, -1.30%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	112.64, -0.50%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	7286, 3.37%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	32.38, 1.19%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.75%, 0.0%	Neutral	Neutral
Nyse Summation Index	-467, 30.06%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	20.53, -19.17%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	1893, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	1954, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2031, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	7307, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	7532, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	8000, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	20.92, -15.23%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	68.71, 0.88%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	10
Bearish Indications	5	7
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The Sand P 500 and the Nifty bounced back last week. Indicators are bullish. Markets are back at resistance. Looking for a retest of the recent lows.
On the Horizon	Japan - CPI, Euro zone – German CPI, U.K – GDP, U.S – Consumer confidence data, Durable goods, Trade balance, GDP, Personal consumption data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market and Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016, looking for a retest of the recent lows. The critical levels to watch are 1940 (up) and 1900 (down) on the S & P and 7300 (up) and 7100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.