About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Monday, 10 November 2014

Deflationary Crash in 2015?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/predictors-29-crash-see-65-112657959.html

Thursday, 6 November 2014

QE forever wont stop deflation

QE in Japan, QE in Europe, QE in the US, there is no stopping deflation though.
Look no further than the recent strength in the dollar, break out in the US Volatility Vix index and an absolute collapse in several industrial commodities like crude oil, copper and silver.

Monday, 3 November 2014

Markets to get a reality check?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/-ugly--economic-reality-will-slam-stocks--kee-135902248.html

Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Tuesday, Aug 19
16:30	US	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	-2.4M	-1.2M
22:00	NZ	RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
22:00	NZ	RBNZ Monetary Policy Review
22:00	NZ	RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	3.00%	3.00%
23:00	NZ	RBNZ Press Conference
Wednesday, Aug 20
02:00	UK	Retail Price Index (YoY)		4.5%
02:00	UK	Retail Price Index (MoM)		0.1%
02:00	UK	Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)		3.7%
02:00	UK	Consumer Price Index (YoY)		3.7%
02:00	UK	Consumer Price Index (MoM)		-0.1%

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.