Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed.
About
Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx.
They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other
key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day.
Today's commentary looks at a possible head and shoulders pattern forming in the S & P 500:
Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx.
They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other
key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day.
Today's commentary looks at the dollar ahead of the important ECB meeting and Chinese GDP:
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. Market
momentum and breadth have been showing divergences for months now and sentiment
indicators are still highly complacent and a big breakdown will likely start
soon. It is interesting to see most risk assets suddenly moving together much
like in 2008. This is setting us up for some serious downside unless recent
resistance gets taken out soon. The market is struggling to get past its 50 DMA
and gold just made a massive move down which is deflationary. Short term we are
oversold but any oversold bounces may not last long. The critical levels to
watch are 2140 (up) and 2120 (down) on the S & P and 8700 (up) and 8500
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the
next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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Cash - 40% Bonds - 20% Fixed deposit - 20% Gold - 5% Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds) Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.