Indicator
|
Weekly Level / Change /
Significance
|
Implication for
S & P 500
|
Implication for Nifty*
|
S & P 500
|
2093, -0.69%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
8115, -3.78%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
China Shanghai Index
|
5023, 8.92%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1172, -1.57%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC Crude
|
58.88, -2.24%
|
Bearish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
2.70, -1.21%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic Dry Index
|
610, 3.57%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.11, 1.02%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
125.52, 1.11%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow Transports
|
8510, 2.53%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
US 10 year Bond Yield
|
2.40%, 14.65%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse Summation Index
|
31, -82.27%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US Vix
|
14.21, 2.67%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
20 DMA, S and P 500
|
2114, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral**
|
50 DMA, S and P 500
|
2101, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
200 DMA, S and P 500
|
2045, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20 DMA, Nifty
|
8303, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50 DMA, Nifty
|
8395, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200 DMA, Nifty
|
8335, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
India Vix
|
18.09, 8.58%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.11, 0.58%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
|
|
|
Overall
|
S & P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish Indications
|
6
|
6
|
|
Bearish Indications
|
10
|
12
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The Sand P 500 is correcting
(support 2085) while the Nifty underperformed significantly last week. The summation
index and treasuries are flashing warning signs.
|
|
|
On the Horizon
|
Greece, G7 meetings, US Retail
Sales and PPI
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Index
|
|
|
Raw Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
|
|
About
Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
Featured post
Time Series Analysis with GRETL
This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...
Saturday 6 June 2015
Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the Upcoming Week beginning June 8
Labels:
baltic dry index,
bond yield,
china,
copper,
euro,
gold,
moving average,
national stock exchange,
nifty,
nyse,
oil,
rupee,
S and P 500,
stock signals,
transports,
vix,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Saturday 30 May 2015
Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the Upcoming Week beginning June 1
Indicator
|
Weekly Level / Change /
Significance
|
Implication for
S & P 500
|
Implication for Nifty*
|
S & P 500
|
2107, -0.88%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
8434, -0.30%
|
Neutral**
|
Neutral
|
China Shanghai Index
|
4612, -0.99%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1191, -1.24%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC Crude
|
60.23, 0.40%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Copper
|
2.73, -2.04%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic Dry Index
|
589, 0.51%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.099, -0.231%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
124.13, 2.08%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow Transports
|
8300, -2.15%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US 10 year Bond Yield
|
2.10%, -5.42%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse Summation Index
|
175, -36.21%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US Vix
|
13.84, 14.10%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
20 DMA, S and P 500
|
2112, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50 DMA, S and P 500
|
2099, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200 DMA, S and P 500
|
2042, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20 DMA, Nifty
|
8301, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50 DMA, Nifty
|
8438, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200 DMA, Nifty
|
8324, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India Vix
|
16.66, -1.71%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
63.74, 0.40%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S & P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish Indications
|
5
|
6
|
|
Bearish Indications
|
8
|
8
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Marginally Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The Sand P 500 is putting
in a short term top while the Nifty outperformed last week. The summation
index and transports are implying deteriorating market internals. The Vix is
also indicating a topping process in the market.
|
||
On the Horizon
|
Greece, PMI’s from US and
UK, Australia (RBA), India (RBI), ECB and UK rate decisions, US and Canada
employment data.
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Index
|
||
Raw Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
Labels:
baltic dry index,
bond yield,
china,
copper,
euro,
gold,
moving average,
national stock exchange,
nifty,
nyse,
oil,
rupee,
S and P 500,
stock signals,
transports,
vix,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.