Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 16

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2711, -8.79%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	9955, -9.41%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2887, -4.85%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1529, -8.57%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	32.11, -22.21%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.49, -3.11%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	631, 2.27%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1106, -1.59%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	107.93, 2.48%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	7939, -11.35%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (Bond)	99.18, -6.12%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.98%, 96.62%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	-780, -214.15%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	57.83, 37.89%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	132	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3052, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3198, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3049, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11354, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11829, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	11654, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S & P 500 P/E	20.38	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.66	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	51.47, 100.73%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	73.84, -0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	2	2
Bearish Indications	15	15
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty crashed last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – FOMC rate decision, Eurozone – CPI, UK – Employment data, China – PboC rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P and the Nifty crashed last week. Indicators are bearish for the coming week. A 200 point rally in the S & P is likely soon after which we are likely to get a retest of the recent lows. Long term, the epic meltdown that just began is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. Insane valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a likely a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a recession much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a rebounding dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2725 (up) and 2700 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10050 (up) and 9850 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 09

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2972, 0.61%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10989, -1.90%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3035, 5.35%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1674, 6.87%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	41.61, -7.04%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.55, 0.31%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	617, 15.33%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1284, 2.34%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	105.28, -2.59%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	8956, -4.60%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (Bond)	105.64, -1.24%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.77%, -29.91%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-248, -289.67%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	41.94, 4.56%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	126	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3213, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3250, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3052, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11753, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11997, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	11683, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S & P 500 P/E	22.36	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	25.01	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	25.64, 10.36%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	74.00, 2.02%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	6
Bearish Indications	10	12
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 was up slightly and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – CPI, Eurozone – ECB rate decision, UK- GDP, Japan - GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P was up slightly and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the coming week. A panic bottom in the S & P near about 2600 is likely soon. Long term, the epic meltdown that just began is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. Insane valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a likely a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP and usher in a recession much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a rebounding dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2985 (up) and 2960 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11050 (up) and 10900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.