Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 14

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2596, 2.54%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10795, 0.67%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2554, 1.55%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1290, 0.29%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	51.59, 7.57%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.66, 0.55%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1169, -7.22%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1465, 0.85%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	108.51, 0.04%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	9625, 4.34%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	34.83, 2.11%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.70%, 1.58%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	-372, 59.60%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	18.19, -14.92%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	119	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2521, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2635, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2741, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10816, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10711, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10793, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.35, -5.01%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	70.36, 1.21%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	12
Bearish Indications	4	4
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – PPI, UK – Brexit deal parliamentary vote, CPI, Canada – CPI, Euro Zone – CPI, China - GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. The market got its oversold bounce of about a 250 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix is below the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2610 (up) and 2585 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 07

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2532, 1.86%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10727, -1.22%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2515, 0.84%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1286, 0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	47.96, 5.80%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.65, -1.27%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1260, -0.87%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1368, -0.60%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	108.47, -1.58%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	9225, 1.27%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	34.11, 1.70%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.66%, -2.81%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-920, 15.09%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	21.38, -24.56%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	111	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2539, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2645, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2743, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10777, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10647, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10780, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	16.16, 5.84%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	69.52, -0.26%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	8
Bearish Indications	7	8
Outlook	Bearish	Neutral
Observation	The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – CPI, UK – GDP, Canada – BOC rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. The market got its oversold bounce of about a 100 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix is much below the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2540 (up) and 2520 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10800 (up) and 10600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback and a happy new year.