Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 17

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2600, -1.26%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10805, 1.058%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2594, -0.47%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1241, -0.89%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	51.20, -2.68%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.76, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1401, 2.11%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1307, -0.67%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	113.38, 0.66%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	9514, -4.39%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	34.55, 0.29%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.89%, 1.44%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	-487, -35.77%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	21.63, -6.89%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	119	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2684, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2730, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2759, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10711, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10534, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10750, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.16, -18.46%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	71.96, 0.82%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	3	8
Bearish Indications	10	7
Outlook	Bearish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets are on the verge of a 5 year bear market. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Euro Zone – CPI, US – FOMC rate decision, GDP, UK – CPI, BOE rate decision, GDP, Japan – BOJ rate decision, New Zealand - GDP, Australia – Employment data, Canada - GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. The oversold bounce in global markets has likely stalled out near the declining 200 DMA’s and the 50 week moving averages that were violated for the first time in two years will likely act as strong resistance going forward. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year bear market is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2610 (up) and 2590 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 10

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2633, -4.60%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10694, -1.68%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2606, 0.68%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1253, 2.17%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	52.61, 3.30%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.76, -1.00%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1372, 11.45%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1384, 0.92%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	112.64, -0.78%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	9951, -8.03%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	34.45, -0.33%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	3.01%, -1.34%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-359, 10.10%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	23.23, 28.56%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	114	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2712, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2758, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2762, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10684, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10567, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10745, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	18.59, -2.99%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	71.38, 2.37%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	9
Bearish Indications	8	8
Outlook	Bearish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets are on the verge of a 5 year bear market. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Russia – Rate decision, Euro Zone – ECB rate decision, US – PPI, CPI, UK – GDP, Employment data, Vote on Brexit deal, Japan – GDP, Switzerland - SNB rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. The oversold bounce in global markets has likely stalled out near the declining 200 DMA’s and the 50 week moving averages that were violated for the first time in two years will likely act as strong resistance going forward. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year bear market is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2645 (up) and 2620 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10800 (up) and 10600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.