About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Thursday, 27 July 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets and the Economy:
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Wednesday, 26 July 2017

Plan to buy your dream car / Increasing consumerism



You have landed that dream job.  Finally you have some significant savings and you are in the market for a brand new car. You think your budget would be in the range of five to six lakhs. You are now contemplating taking a loan. You survey the landscape and find auto loan rates ranging anywhere from twelve to fifteen percent. You are disheartened a bit as the loan rates appear a bit expensive. You would have to shell out quite a bit in interest expense over the life time of the loan. 

This however should come as no surprise to you as auto loan rates have been exhibiting a rising trend over the last five to ten years. All is not lost though; If you can postpone your purchase for a little while and develop a systematic investment strategy in top rated mutual funds you may be able to save enough for your car and also save significant interest expense that a car loan would entail.

For example if you are about thirty years old and you have a medium risk appetite implying you invest about 60% in equity and 40% in debt mutual funds you could achieve your targeted goal of Rs five lakhs in about 5 years if you invest as little as Rs 5,000 a month. Your monthly investment would be diversified into top rated mutual funds from highly rated fund houses like Birla Sun Life, SBI, ICICI Prudential and Franklin Templeton. If you double your investment amount to Rs 10,000 a month then you accomplish your investment goal a lot faster.

If you have a slightly higher risk appetite and are willing to invest about 80% in equity and 20% in debt you can potentially accomplish your investment target a lot faster than the earlier approach with proven investments in top rated mutual funds investing as little as Rs 5,000 a month. Double that investment and your dream car is just a few years away. So why wait? Custom make your own unique investment strategy to make that dream car a reality.
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Tuesday, 25 July 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets and the Economy:
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  • Remniscience of a stock operator

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.