Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 25

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change / Significance	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	1907, 1.41%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	7422, -0.21%	Neutral**	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	2917, 0.54%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1098, 0.88%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	32.25, 5.12%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.00, 2.80%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	354, -5.09%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.087, -0.37%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	118.78, 1.48%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	6779, 1.34%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	32.96, 0.70%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.05%, 0.74%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	-770, -43.79%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	22.34, -17.32%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	1966, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2023, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2051, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	7627, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	7732, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	8113, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	18.82, -3.06%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	67.58, -0.27%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	10
Bearish Indications	6	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The Sand P 500 and the Nifty were down early last week but recovered to post gains later in the week. Indicators are bullish. Looking for the oversold bounce to continue till FED day.
On the Horizon	Australia– CPI,  Canada – GDP, Japan- CPI, New Zealand – Rate decision, Euro zone – German and Euro CPI, U.K – GDP, U.S – Consumer Confidence, FOMC rate decision, Durable goods, trade balance, GDP.
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market and Nifty recovered last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The markets are in crash mode and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this oversold bounce that should last till FED day. The critical levels to watch are 1920 (up) and 1880 (down) on the S & P and 7500 (up) and 7400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Extreme Bearish Sentiment, Odds of a Bounce are increasing

Sentiment has reached extremes on bearishness off late so I wont be surprised to see a bounce in the broader market soon. Two indicators of market fear seem to be stalling:

First  the US Vix is stalling near the 27 mark in an oversold market:
Second  the Yen is encountering resistance near the 117 mark:


Expecting a count trend oversold bounce to the 1900-1920 zone on the S and P 500 and the 7450-7500 area on the Nifty. Expecting gold to out perform and reach the 1150 mark.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 18

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change / Significance	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	1880, -2.17%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	7438, -2.15%	Neutral**	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2901, -8.96%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1089, -1.40%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	30.68, -6.69%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	1.95, -3.30%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	373, -13.05%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.086, -0.57%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	117.04, -0.34%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	6689, -3.70%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	32.73, -2.24%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.03%, -4.55%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-535.44, -200.42%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	27.02, 0.04%	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	1996, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2041, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2054, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	7743, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	7789, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	8142, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	19.42, 9.09%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	67.76, 1.30%	Bearish	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	1	1
Bearish Indications	15	17
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The Sand P 500 and the Nifty were down hard last week. Indicators are bearish but the market is becoming oversold. Looking for downside to continue after an oversold bounce.
On the Horizon	Canada – Rate decision, CPI, New Zealand – CPI, Euro zone – German ZEW survey, Rate decision U.K – CPI, U.S – CPI, China – GDP.
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market and Nifty fell hard last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The markets are in crash mode and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after an oversold bounce. The critical levels to watch are 1900 (up) and 1860 (down) on the S & P and 7500 (up) and 7400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the 

S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.