About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 5 May 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 06

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2946, 0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
11712, -0.36%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3078, -0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1280, -0.59%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
61.86, -2.27%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.82, -2.56%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
985, 10.80%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1203, 0.48%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
111.11, -0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10959, 0.71%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.09, -0.44%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.53%, 1.20%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
918, -5.37%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.87, 1.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
122
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2914, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2852, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2774, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11672, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
11355, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
11022, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
24.03, 10.66%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.18, -0.96%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
5
6
Bearish Indications
6
6
Outlook
Bearish
Neutral
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – PPI, CPI, UK – GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals may 06


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top in global equity markets. The market has rallied 600 points from the December lows but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has far exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2960 (up) and 2930 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11800 (up) and 11650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Sunday, 28 April 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 29

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2940, 1.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11755, 0.02%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3086, -5.64%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1288, 0.74%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
62.84, -1.81%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.89, -1.06%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
869, 10.00%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1154, -0.84%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
111.58, -0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10881, -0.97%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.25, 0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.50%, -2.33%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
971, -7.30%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.73, 5.29%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
126
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2896, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2836, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2771, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11655, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
11298, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
11008, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
21.72, -4.48%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
69.85, 0.69%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7
8
Bearish Indications
7
7
Outlook
Neutral
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – FOMC rate decision, Employment data, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, UK – BOE rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals april 29


The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top in global equity markets. The market has rallied 600 points from the December lows but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has far exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2950 (up) and 2930 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11850 (up) and 11650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.