Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 25

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2801, -0.77%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	11457, 0.26%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3104, 2.73%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1319, 1.21%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	58.97, 0.77%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.85, -1.93%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	690, -5.48%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1315, -0.09%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	109.93, -1.47%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	10052, -2.50%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.71, 0.14%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.44%, -6.06%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	924, -6.08%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	16.48, 27.95%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	118	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2799, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2734, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2755, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11122, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10946, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10906, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	16.28, 2.58%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	69.19 0.32%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	7
Bearish Indications	7	7
Outlook	Neutral	Neutral
Observation	The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are neutral for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – GDP, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, UK – GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are neutral for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are making a major secondary top in global equity markets. The market got its oversold bounce of about 450 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2810 (up) and 2790 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11550 (up) and 11350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 18

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2823, 2.89%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	11427, 3.55%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3022, 1.75%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1303, 0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	58.52, 4.37%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.91, 0.43%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	730, 12.48%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1350, 1.06%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	111.50, 0.32%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10310, 1.91%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.66, 0.73%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.59%, -1.22%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	984, -8.24%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	12.88, -19.75%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	129	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2787, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2705, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2753, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10959, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10890, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10889, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.86, 6.19%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	68.94 -1.55%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	12	14
Bearish Indications	1	1
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – FOMC rate decision, Euro Zone – EU leaders summit, UK – Employment data, CPI, BOE rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are making a major secondary top in global equity markets. The market got its oversold bounce of about 450 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2835 (up) and 2810 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11500 (up) and 11300 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.