Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 28

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2665, -0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	10781, -1.26%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2602, 0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1298, 1.21%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	53.69, -0.65%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.73, 0.37%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	905, -18.62%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1369, -0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	109.47, -0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	9922, -0.90%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.05, -0.06%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.75%, -1.11%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	329, 325.66%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	17.42, -2.13%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	126	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2578, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2613, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2741, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10834, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10780, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10837, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.69, 6.45%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	70.93, -0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	3
Bearish Indications	4	7
Outlook	Bullish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – Parliamentary vote on Brexit, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, US – GDP, FOMC rate decision, Employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was little changed and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. The market got its oversold bounce of about 300 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix is finally catching up to the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2680 (up) and 2650 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 21

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2671, 2.87%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10907, 1.04%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2596, 1.65%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1283, -0.54%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	54.04, 4.75%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.72, 2.14%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1112, -4.88%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1370, -0.83%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	109.71, 1.10%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10012, 4.02%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.07, 0.69%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.78%, 3.07%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	77, 120.79%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	17.80, -2.14%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	131	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2535, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2625, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2741, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10806, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10750, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10822, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	16.62, 8.24%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	71.25, 1.26%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	11	12
Bearish Indications	5	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – BOJ rate decision, China – GDP, UK – Employment data, Euro Zone – ECB rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. The market got its oversold bounce of about a 300 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix is below the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2680 (up) and 2660 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11000 (up) and 10800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.