Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 26

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2633, -3.79%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10527, -1.46%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2580, -3.72%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1223, 0.02%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	50.42, -11.02%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.77, -1.14%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1008, -2.23%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1332, -1.50%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	112.94, 0.08%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10369, -2.03%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	34.40, -0.61%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	3.05%, -0.65%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-484, -17.71%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	21.52, 18.63%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	117	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2714, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2794, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2761, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10482, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10769, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10749, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	19.16, 4.41%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	70.53, -1.73%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	2	4
Bearish Indications	12	12
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. The markets are about to collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Canada – GDP, Euro Zone – EU leaders summit, German employment data, CPI, US - GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. The oversold bounce in global markets has likely stalled out near the declining 200 DMA’s and the 50 week moving averages that were violated for the first time in two years will likely act as strong resistance going forward. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A major top has been established in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2645 (up) and 2620 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10600 (up) and 10450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 19

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2736, -1.61%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10682, 0.92%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2679, 3.09%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1223, 1.19%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	56.68, -5.83%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.80, 4.25%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1031, -10.11%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1504, 1.47%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	112.85, -0.81%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	10584, 0.63%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	34.61, -1.51%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	3.07%, -3.61%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-412, 8.78%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	18.14, 4.49%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	119	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2726, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2813, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2761, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10401, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10750, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10756, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	18.35, 3.29%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	71.77, -1.17%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	9
Bearish Indications	8	9
Outlook	Neutral	Neutral
Observation	The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are neutral for the week. The markets are indicating a major trend change. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Canada – CPI, Euro Zone – German GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are neutral for the upcoming week. The oversold bounce in global markets has likely stalled out near the declining 200 DMA’s and the 50 week moving averages that were violated for the first time in two years will likely act as strong resistance. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A major top has been established in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. This is going to be followed by a massive selloff and most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2750 (up) and 2725 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10750 (up) and 10600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.