Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 10

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2872, -1.03%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	11589, -0.78%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2702, -0.84%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1200, -0.52%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	67.75, -2.94%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.62, -1.82%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1490, -5.64%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1571, -0.36%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	110.96, -0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	11348, 0.39%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	35.76, -0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.94%, 3.12%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	525, -17.75%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	14.88, 15.71%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	146	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2868, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2827, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2736, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11550, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11246, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10709, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	13.89, 10.26%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	72.05, 1.79%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	3	3
Bearish Indications	10	12
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish. The markets are confirming secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – GDP, Australia – Employment data, GDP, U.S – PPI, CPI, Euro Zone – ECB rate decision, UK – GDP, Employment data, BOE rate decision, Russia – Rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. This rally is close to a major secondary top in key asset classes which has already formed in the Euro and commodities. This is going to be followed by a massive selloff most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2885 (up) and 2860 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11700 (up) and 11500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 03

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2902, 0.93%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	11681, 1.07%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2725, -0.15%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1207, -0.54%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	69.80, 1.57%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.67, -1.09%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1579, -6.95%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1612, -0.07%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	111.09, -0.07%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	11304, 0.17%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	35.83, -0.03%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.85%, 0.96%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	639, 14.20%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	12.86, 7.26%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	147	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2863, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2815, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2730, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11506, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11167, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10676, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.60, 1.53%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	70.78, 1.48%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	6
Bearish Indications	6	8
Outlook	Neutral	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 was and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are mixed. The markets are close to making secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – RBA rate decision, GDP, U.S – Employment data, Canada – BOC rate decision, Employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. This rally is close to a major secondary top in key asset classes which has already formed in the Euro and commodities. This is going to be followed by a massive selloff most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2915 (up) and 2890 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11750 (up) and 11600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.