Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 02

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2641, 2.03%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10114, 1.16%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3160, 0.25%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1327, -1.67%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	64.94, -1.43%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	3.03, 1.09%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1080, -3.31%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.2304, -0.42%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	106.41, 1.52%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10397, 2.29%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.70, 0.65%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.74%, -3.14%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	16, -88.01%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	19.97, -19.70%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	119	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2704, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2730, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2589, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10245, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10518, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10180, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	15.76, 1.37%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	65.03, 0.01%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	8
Bearish Indications	6	8
Outlook	Bearish	Neutral
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty bounced back last week. Indicators are mixed. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – RBA rate decision, Retail sales,  Japan – Tankan survey, China – PMI, Euro Zone – CPI, German PMI, UK – PMI’s, Carney speech, U.S – ISM PMI, Oil inventories, Employment data, Powell speech, Canada – PMI, Employment data,  India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

Image from marketwatch.com 

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rebounded last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. Given the extremely bearish sentiment and the 200 DMA hold a short term bottom is likely in and the rally may prolong till 2700 before the bears take over again. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The yen and other safe haven asset classes are flashing warning signs. Indian market volatility is still well below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2650 (up) and 2630 (down) on the S & P and 10200 (up) and 10000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 26

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2588, -5.95%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	9998, -1.93%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3153, -3.58%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1350, 2.87%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	65.88, 5.56%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.99, -3.68%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1117, -2.87%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.2357, 0.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	104.81, -1.15%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	10163, -4.87%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.62, -0.97%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.83%, -0.63%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	129, -54.44%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	24.87, 57.41%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	131	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2724, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2742, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2585, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10306, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10549, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10173, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	15.55, 2.14%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	65.02, -0.10%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	4
Bearish Indications	11	14
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	China – PMI, Euro Zone – German employment data, UK – GDP, U.S – Consumer Confidence, Home sales, Oil inventories, GDP, Canada – GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The yen and other safe haven asset classes are flashing warning signs. Indian market volatility is still well below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2600 (up) and 2575 (down) on the S & P and 10100 (up) and 9900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.