Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 25

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2502, 0.08%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	9964, -1.20%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3353, -0.03%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1298, -2.09%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	50.66, 1.54%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.94, -0.15%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1470, 8.01%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1951, 0.05%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	111.99, 1.01%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	9704, 1.66%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	37.20, 0.08%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.26%, 2.72%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	675, 25.70%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	9.59, -5.70%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	138	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2480, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2469, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2382, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10001, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	9954, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	9236, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.81, 9.70%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	64.87, 1.15%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	7
Bearish Indications	2	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish. The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	China – PMI, New Zealand – Rate decision, UK – GDP, Euro – German elections, German IFO data, German employment data, CPI, U.S – Consumer confidence, Oil inventories, Home sales, Durable goods, GDP, Canada – GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2510 (up) and 2490 (down) on the S & P and 10000 (up) and 9900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.