Indicator
|
Weekly Level / Change
|
Implication for
S & P 500
|
Implication for Nifty*
|
S & P 500
|
2500, 1.58%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
10085, 1.52%
|
Neutral **
|
Bullish
|
China Shanghai Index
|
3353, -0.35%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Gold
|
1325, -1.92%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC Crude
|
49.89, 5.08%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
2.95, -3.04%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic Dry Index
|
1361, 5.02%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.1945, -0.75%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
110.88, 2.85%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow Transports
|
9546, 1.73%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High Yield (ETF)
|
37.17, 0.65%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
US 10 year Bond Yield
|
2.20%, 6.84%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse Summation Index
|
536, 54.40%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
10.17, -16.09%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
145
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
20 DMA, S and P 500
|
2463, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50 DMA, S and P 500
|
2462, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200 DMA, S and P 500
|
2375, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20 DMA, Nifty
|
9927, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50 DMA, Nifty
|
9917, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200 DMA, Nifty
|
9187, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India Vix
|
11.68, -9.91%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.13, 0.26%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S & P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish Indications
|
11
|
11
|
|
Bearish Indications
|
5
|
6
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The S and P 500 made a new high and
the rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is topping. Time to
tighten those stops.
|
|
|
On the Horizon
|
New Zealand – GDP, UK – Retail sales,
Euro Zone – CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, German PMI, U.S – Home sales,
Oil inventories, FOMC rate decision, Canada – CPI, Retail sales
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw Data
|
Courtesy Google finance, Stock
charts, investing.com
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
|
|
The S and P 500 made a new high and the Nifty moved
up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The markets are still
trading at 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2510 (up) and 2490
(down) on the S & P and 10150 (up) and 10000 (down) on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the
above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a
comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.