About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Sunday, 4 December 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 5

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2192, -0.97%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	8087, -0.34%	Neutral**	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3244, -0.55%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1178, -0.05%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	51.68, 12.20%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.62, -1.61%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1198, 1.44%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.067, 0.62%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	113.50, 0.39%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	9049, 0.05%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	36.01, 0.27%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.39%, 0.76%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	110, 227.85%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	14.12, 14.42%	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2178, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2156, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2111, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8196, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	8484, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	8163, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.93, 1.82%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	68.02, -0.73%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	4
Bearish Indications	5	9
Outlook	Bulllish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed. The Trump bounce is largely over and downside is about to resume. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	China – New loan data, CPI, Australia – Rate decision, GDP, U.S –ISM non manufacturing data, U. Mich. consumer confidence, Canada –Rate decision, Euro zone – Italy referendum, ECB rate decision, UK – Supreme court hears Brexit appeal

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. A FED rate hike is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. A big move is coming very soon in the markets and will most likely be down. Bond yields have made a dramatic surge up and risky segments of the market like emerging markets are breaking down on broad dollar strength. The critical levels to watch are 2200 (up) and 2180 (down) on the S & P and 8150 (up) and 8000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Thursday, 1 December 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at the Euro ahead of the payroll data out of the US:

Major Sell Off Coming?

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.