Recent Big Moves in Key Markets

A very interesting video from the Financial Times that looks at some very big moves in some key asset classes across the globe. This includes the recent rout in global bonds and emerging market currencies following the election of Donald Trump as the 45th US president:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 21

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2182, 0.81%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	8074, -2.68%	Neutral**	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3193, -0.10%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1209, -1.27%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	46.36, 6.80%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.47, -1.65%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1257, 20.29%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.059, -2.47%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	110.89, 3.99%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	8857, 3.24%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.62, 1.39%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.34%, 10.30%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	-182, 39.02%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	12.85, -9.32%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2143, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2146, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2096, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8469, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	8633, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	8131, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.81, 2.53%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	68.15, 0.90%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	11	7
Bearish Indications	4	10
Outlook	Bulllish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are mixed. The oversold bounce is largely over and downside is about to resume. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan - CPI, U.K – Budget, GDP, U.S – Trade balance, Durable goods, FED minutes
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell hard last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Market momentum and breadth have been showing divergences for months now and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode and a big breakdown will likely start soon. A big move is coming very soon in the markets. Bond yields have made a dramatic surge up and risky segments of the market like high yield and emerging markets are breaking down on broad dollar strength. The critical levels to watch are 2190 (up) and 2170 (down) on the S & P and 8200 (up) and 8000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day. Today's commentary looks at some key Forex pairs: