Indicator
|
Weekly Level / Change
|
Implication for
S & P 500
|
Implication for Nifty*
|
S & P 500
|
2098, -1.34%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
8526, -1.30%
|
Neutral**
|
Bearish
|
China Shanghai Index
|
3103, -0.05%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Gold
|
1308, 2.46%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC Crude
|
45.34, -6.90%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.23, 1.69%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic Dry Index
|
838, 5.01%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.111, 1.02%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
103.82, -0.32%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dow Transports
|
8026, 0.09%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
High Yield (ETF)
|
35.75, -1.20%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US 10 year Bond Yield
|
1.80%, -2.49%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse Summation Index
|
-170, -651.67%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
19.32, 19.33%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
20 DMA, S and P 500
|
2137, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50 DMA, S and P 500
|
2151, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
200 DMA, S and P 500
|
2081, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20 DMA, Nifty
|
8649, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50 DMA, Nifty
|
8705, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200 DMA, Nifty
|
8088, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India Vix
|
16.50, 12.63%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
66.73, -0.09%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S & P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish Indications
|
6
|
6
|
|
Bearish Indications
|
7
|
8
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last
week. Indicators are bearish.
Markets are breaking
down again. Time to tighten those stops.
|
|
|
On the Horizon
|
Australia – AIG service index indicator, UK –
Brexit trigger ruling, BOE rate decision, US – FOMC rate decision, ISM data
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw Data
|
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts,
dailyfx.com
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
|
|
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last
week. Signals are slightly bearish for the upcoming week. Market momentum and
breadth have been showing divergences for months now and sentiment indicators
are still highly complacent and a big breakdown has likely started. Short term
we are oversold but any oversold bounces may not last long. The critical levels
to watch are 2110 (up) and 2090 (down) on the S & P and 8600 (up) and 8400
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the
next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s stock market signals october 24 for a
comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.