About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 6 April 2016

Chart of the Day - CSFB Fear Gauge

The chart of the day comes courtesy of ETFdaily news. It shows that while the market has been rallying off late and the Vix has been hitting lows near the 13 level, the CSFB fear gauge has surged to a record high. This shows that institutional investors have been buying out of the money put hedges in large amounts and are not believers in this rally:

Chart of the Day - Bear Market Probability

The chart of the day is courtesy of Econmatters that shows bear market probabilities for the US stock market S & P 500 Index. The chart shows that despite the recent rally, the probability of a bear market is still pretty high:
bear market probability

Monday, 4 April 2016

Chart of the Day - Global Central Bank Interest Rates

The chart of the day is courtesy of The Telegraph and discussed by Sol Palha on Safehaven, that shows several Global Central Banks have embraced very low interest rate or even Negative Interest Rate Policies (NIRP) to try and arrest deflation and fuel growth. The jury is out on whether this would work long term as such an experiment in Japan is ending in failure.
World Central Bank Interest Rates

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.