US Stock Market, Lots of Downside Ahead, Major Tops and Bottoms Analysis since 1950

With the recent melt down in global markets, it would be prudent to look back at historical data on the US market to see where we stand. To do this I look at major tops and bottoms in the S & P 500 obtained from weekly historical data from Yahoo Finance since 1950. The first table below shows major tops and bottoms in the S and P 500 relative to the average and standard deviation:

Table 1: S&P 500 Tops/Bottoms, Average & Standard Deviation over Time

Date	S & P 500 Top / Bottom	Average	Standard Deviation
November 25, 1968	108.37	55.37	24.92
May 18, 1970	72.25	58.26	26.21
January 2, 1973	119.87	62.90	28.12
September 30, 1974	62.34	65.38	28.78
December 22, 1980	136.57	72.26	29.69
August 2, 1982	103.71	74.74	31.00
August 17, 1987	335.9	90.93	53.55
30-Nov-87	223.92	92.37	55.95
13-Jul-98	1186.75	181.77	203.72
31-Aug-98	973.89	184.22	208.73
20-Mar-00	1527.46	218.64	282.52
2-Apr-01	1128.43	242.13	324.34
14-May-01	1291.96	244.38	327.45
10-Sep-01	965.8	250.33	334.93
11-Mar-02	1166.16	258.34	343.62
30-Sep-02	800.58	266.00	349.94
8-Oct-07	1561.8	346.50	427.52
2-Mar-09	683.38	366.81	443.71
19-Apr-10	1217.28	379.11	448.71
28-Jun-10	1022.58	381.39	449.82
2-May-11	1340.2	392.94	457.43
15-Aug-11	1123.53	397.09	460.40
13-Jul-15	2126.64	474.27	543.97

As can be seen in the table above on only one major bottom in 1974, the market tested it's long term average since 1950. We have not tested the average since 1974 for well over 40 years. The other interesting observation is that the standard deviation of the market has exceeded it's average since 1998 with the market way above its average. This coincides with the involvement of the FED in the market since 1998 post the Long Term Capital debacle and suggests that the risk in the market has increased significantly. The markets average since 1950 currently stands at about 475.

The next table shows the deviation from the average at major tops and bottoms and the return from highs to lows and lows to highs.  The market in its early stages till about 1987 always peaked out at about 2 standard deviations above the average. Since 1987 the market has gotten as high as 5 standard deviations above its long term average.  Bottoms tend to occur within 1.5 standard deviations from the average. Every key top at above 2 standard deviations from the mean produced a decline of at least 16%. The current market is the fourth most over extended market in history.

Table 2: No of Standard Deviations from the Average at Major S&P 500 Tops/Bottoms and Subsequent Returns from Tops to Bottoms and Bottoms to Tops

Date	No of Standard Deviations from Average	% Change
November 25, 1968	2.13	-33%
May 18, 1970	0.53	66%
January 2, 1973	2.03	-48%
September 30, 1974	-0.11	119%
December 22, 1980	2.17	-24%
August 2, 1982	0.93	224%
August 17, 1987	4.57	-33%
30-Nov-87	2.35	430%
13-Jul-98	4.93	-18%
31-Aug-98	3.78	57%
20-Mar-00	4.63	-26%
2-Apr-01	2.73	14%
14-May-01	3.20	-25%
10-Sep-01	2.14	21%
11-Mar-02	2.64	-31%
30-Sep-02	1.53	95%
8-Oct-07	2.84	-56%
2-Mar-09	0.71	78%
19-Apr-10	1.87	-16%
28-Jun-10	1.43	31%
2-May-11	2.07	-16%
15-Aug-11	1.58	89%
13-Jul-15	3.04	?

Finally drilling down to tops and bottoms since 2000, the average top to bottom decline since 2000 is 28% while the average bottom to top return since 2000 is 55%.

So the question begs what does it mean for today’s market? We have already started breaking down from over extended levels. The current market average is about 474 and standard deviation is 544. Here are some scenarios below:

Table 3: S&P 500 Possible Scenarios

Market Average (MA)+ Standard Deviation (SD)	S & P 500 Level
MA	474
MA +  1 SD	1018
MA + 2 SD	1562
MA +  3 SD	2106

The bottom line is folks we are historically over extended. We could now correct to at least 2 standard deviations above the long term average which is close to the 2008 highs near 1575 or to a standard deviation (#stdev) above the long term average as was the case at the 2008 lows near 1018 or to the long term average near 474 which we haven’t revisited since 1974. Only time will tell.

S and P 500 reversion to the mean ongoing? Analysis of major tops & bottoms http://t.co/Q6Uq65hgaW pic.twitter.com/a15iGR5LCx

— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 7, 2015

Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 24

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change / Significance	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	1971, -5.77%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	8300, -2.57%	Neutral**	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3508, -11.54%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1160, 4.20%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	40.29, -4.48%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.30, -2.03%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	994, -5.78%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1388, 2.62%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	122.07, -1.85%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	7872, -5.37%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.05%, -6.47%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-392, -31.65%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	28.03, 118.47%	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2083, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2091, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2078, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8457, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	8425, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	8458, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.11, 6.84%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	66.21, 1.67%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	3	3
Bearish Indications	12	14
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The Sand P 500 and Nifty were down hard last week. Indicators are oversold but bearish. The Vix is flashing crash signs.  Looking for more downside in the Nifty and the S and P 500 after an oversold bounce.
On the Horizon	US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence, Japan and German CPI, US, UK and Swiss GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

Signals are highly bearish for the upcoming week and markets are in crash mode. Indicators are oversold, will be looking for an oversold bounce up to 1950 on the S and P after which there will be more downside in the Nifty and the S and P 500. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices.